saeed shavalpour; Elahe Kaviani
Abstract
The paper investigates the effects of oil price fluctuations on the installed capacity of wind energy in developing countries in comparison with the impact of economies of scale and technical learning. To this end, we used rolling regression analysis and data from 2003 to 2015 to calculate annual technical ...
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The paper investigates the effects of oil price fluctuations on the installed capacity of wind energy in developing countries in comparison with the impact of economies of scale and technical learning. To this end, we used rolling regression analysis and data from 2003 to 2015 to calculate annual technical learning rates. Using the panel data regression and autoregressive model based on panel data we analyzed the effect of oil price fluctuations on wind energy installed capacity as the most advanced renewable energy in developing countries. The results show that oil price changes in the long run have a positive but limited impact on the development of renewable energy in developing countries. Oil price shocks, although in the short term and driven by the incentive of developing countries to transfer higher-tech technologies to renewable energy can not in the long term alone, guarantee the development of renewable energy in these countries
Saeed Shavvalpour; Armin Jabbarzadeh; Hossein Khanjarpanah
Abstract
Crude oil price risk is crucial for oil exporting countries. Consequently, developing a risk hedging mechanism has great importance for these countries. Given that Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most powerful tools for evaluating price risk, this paper has tried to design a mechanism for risk management ...
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Crude oil price risk is crucial for oil exporting countries. Consequently, developing a risk hedging mechanism has great importance for these countries. Given that Value at Risk (VaR) is one of the most powerful tools for evaluating price risk, this paper has tried to design a mechanism for risk management of Iranian oil revenues using the VaR measure. In this regard, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity models including GARCH, CGARCH and EGARCH with different destiny distribution functions are utilized for calculating VaR of OPEC crude oil price in the period of 6 October 2005 to 29 August 2015. The results show that CGARCH model with t-student distribution outperforms the other methods in terms of forecast error measures. The implementation of CGARCH model with using the data of Iranian oil production in 2014 reveals that the proposed model can lead to a significant surplus income.
